Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 98.5% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
Who Will Win the 2026 Fields Medal: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields MedalEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $879.0K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 100.0% | — |
| Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Alexander Efimov win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Aleksandr Logunov win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Vesselin Dimitrov win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Will Sawin win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 93.8% to 96.7% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice