Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 22.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Will a new country buy Bitcoin? Odds & Probability
Markets now price the chance that a new country will buy Bitcoin at 21.0%, a a substantial minority view. The forecast hinges on an official government announcement of a first direct purchase.
21.0%-0.5 pts 24h
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $30.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | 21.0% | -0.5 |
| Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Yes' scenario commands the market's focus, with all other outcomes at negligible probabilities.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 16.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 15.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 21.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 19.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 22.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 22.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 16.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 24.0% to 19.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 22.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The current probability stands at 21.0%. Over the course of trading, the contract has moved between 14.5% and 27.0%. The market settles to 'Yes' if a sovereign UN member state government announces, between November 13, 2025 at 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, that it has acquired Bitcoin for the first time. The announcement can reference a purchase completed before the window opens. Only direct purchases count—investments in ETFs or other vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source is official government statements, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. As the resolution date of Jan 1, 2027 nears, the odds may shift with each credible signal. Any official announcement or well-sourced report that a government is taking direct custody of Bitcoin would likely move the market sharply. The absence of such news as the deadline approaches would push the probability lower.
FAQ
What counts as a "new country" buying Bitcoin?
Any sovereign UN member state that makes a first-time purchase of Bitcoin, as evidenced by an official announcement or credible reporting.
Do purchases of Bitcoin ETFs or derivatives qualify?
No. The market requires a direct purchase where the government takes custody of the actual Bitcoin.
What if a country bought Bitcoin before the market's announcement window but announces it during the window?
The market would still resolve to 'Yes' because the announcement itself falls within the eligible timeframe.
How is the market resolved?
It relies primarily on official government announcements, but if those are absent, a consensus of credible reporting can be used.
What happens if no country announces a purchase by the deadline?
The market settles to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice