Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 4.7% to 7.4% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Could AI really kill us within a decade? — Al Jazeera
Will AI Be Charged With a Crime Before 2027? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets currently price the chance of an AI or large language model being criminally indicted in the United States at 6.9%, unlikely. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027.
6.9%+0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $42.0K
With only a single outcome defined, attention rests entirely on the headline probability; all other possibilities are negligible in this market.
Context
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 4.7% to 6.5% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Could AI really kill us within a decade? — Al Jazeera
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The probability sits at 6.9%, in the unlikely range. In the last day it moved +0.1 pts;
The market resolves to Yes if any US federal or state jurisdiction—including the District of Columbia, counties, and municipalities—formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of an AI or large language model by the deadline. The charge must target the AI itself; actions against the company or organization behind the technology do not count. The primary resolution source is official US governmental information, though a wide consensus of credible reporting can also settle the contract. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027. The final resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2027. The number responds to any formal indictment announcement that meets the criteria: brought by a US jurisdiction, naming an AI or LLM as the defendant, and occurring before the cutoff. Confirmation from the resolution source or a consensus of credible reports would be the trigger for settlement.
FAQ
What counts as a criminal charge for this market?
A formal indictment or announcement by a US federal, state, or local jurisdiction that directly names an AI or large language model as the defendant.
Does a lawsuit or civil action count?
No, only criminal charges trigger a Yes resolution.
What if a company that makes the AI is charged?
That is not sufficient. The charge must be of the AI or LLM itself, not the organization behind it.
How is the resolution determined?
Primarily through official US governmental sources; if those are inconclusive, a wide consensus of credible reporting is used.
Is there a deadline?
Yes, the market resolves based on whether an indictment is filed by the contract's expiration.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice