Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 69.0% to 99.6% — a 30.6-point move over the past day.
Anthropic Extends Claude Fable 5 Access Again: Market Resolves Yes
The market on whether Anthropic would extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19 resolved Yes, with traders pricing the outcome at 99.6%.
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $138.0K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
The Yes outcome resolved favorably, while the alternative No outcome did not materialize.
Context
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 77.0% to 99.5% — a 22.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 64.5% to 76.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 35.0% to 60.5% — a 25.5-point move over the past day.
Traders assigned a near-certain probability to the extension, with the contract settling at 99.6% as the July 19 deadline passed and Anthropic’s announcement held. Resolution hinged on whether Anthropic made a qualifying announcement by 11:59 PM ET on July 19, 2026. To qualify, the extension had to keep Claude Fable 5 within the standard usage limits of Pro, Max, or Team plans—without requiring usage credits—at least for some portion of the plan’s allowance. An extension limited to Enterprise accounts would not have sufficed. The primary resolution source was official Anthropic statements, backed by credible reporting. As of 64 d ago, final settlement on the platform is still pending, but the market’s outcome is unambiguous.
FAQ
What event triggered the Yes resolution?
Anthropic announced an extension of Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access beyond July 19, 2026, meeting the market’s conditions.
What were the criteria for a Yes?
The extension had to be announced by July 19, 2026, and cover at least one of Pro, Max, or Team plans, with baseline access not requiring usage credits. Enterprise-only extensions did not qualify.
How did the probability move before resolution?
The probability stood at 99.6% at the close.
When will the market settle?
The outcome is determined, but final platform settlement may be pending; check the market page for updates.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice