Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 8.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Cat 4 US Landfall Before 2027: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a Category 4 hurricane striking the conterminous US at 8.5%, reflecting unlikely that such a landfall occurs. The resolution window closes on Jan 1, 2027, and the outcome depends entirely on National Hurricane Center advisories.
8.5%+4.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $343.9K
The probability of a Category 4 landfall stands at a unlikely level, with market pricing suggesting it is not the baseline expectation.
Context
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 24.0% to 18.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 24.0% to 19.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The probability currently sits at 8.5%. Over the period, it has traded between 4.5% and 17.5%. The market settles 'Yes' if the National Hurricane Center reports that any hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130–156 mph (Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) makes landfall—its surface center intersecting the coastline—in the conterminous United States between the market's creation and Jan 1, 2027. If no such event is recorded in NHC advisories by that deadline, the market resolves 'No'. The initial NHC advisory typically governs, but a subsequent correction that identifies a qualifying landfall will be considered. Beyond the passing of the deadline Jan 1, 2027, the number can shift with each Atlantic hurricane season as storms develop. Formal NHC advisories and any storm's upgrade or downgrade in real time directly affect the market's assessment. The resolution source—official NHC products—means every tropical cyclone that approaches the US coast is scrutinised against the criteria.
FAQ
What is the definition of a Category 4 hurricane in this market?
A hurricane with maximum sustained winds between 130 and 156 mph, as defined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale used by the National Hurricane Center.
How is “landfall” determined?
Landfall occurs when the hurricane’s surface center intersects the coastline of the conterminous United States, as per the NHC glossary.
Does this market include Hawaii or US territories?
No—only the conterminous United States (the 48 contiguous states) is considered. Alaska, Hawaii, and territories are excluded.
What happens if a hurricane is later downgraded or reanalysed?
The market may resolve based on the initial qualifying NHC advisory. However, corrections or updates that indicate a qualifying landfall will be taken into account.
When does the market’s observation period end?
It runs until Jan 1, 2027.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice