Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 13.5% to 4.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Category 5 Hurricane US Landfall by 2027: Current Odds
Prediction markets price the chance of a Category 5 hurricane making US landfall before 2027 at 6.8%, which qualifies as unlikely.
6.8%+0.3 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $141.6K
A Category 5 landfall is seen as unlikely, with the no-landfall scenario accounting for the vast majority of the probability.
Context
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 15.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 10.0% to 21.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
The market's estimate has remained fairly muted, recently hovering near 6.8%. Over the observed period, it has ranged between 5.0% and 15.0%. To settle as 'Yes,' a hurricane with sustained winds of at least 157 mph must make landfall in the contiguous United States, as defined by the National Hurricane Center's surface-center intersection criterion. Resolution hinges on official NHC advisories issued between the market's launch and Jan 1, 2027. The initial advisory takes precedence, although later corrections do count if they reveal a qualifying event. The probability could shift on any sign of a powerful storm developing in the Atlantic basin, particularly one that threatens the Gulf or East Coasts. Because resolution follows NHC data, a single advisory upgrade to Category 5 on approach would flip the market. Conversely, a quiet hurricane season or storms that weaken before landfall would keep the number low.
FAQ
What wind speed defines a Category 5 hurricane here?
A hurricane is considered Category 5 when maximum sustained winds reach 157 mph or higher, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
How is landfall determined?
Landfall occurs when the hurricane's surface center intersects the coastline, per the National Hurricane Center's definition.
Which part of the US is included?
Only the conterminous (contiguous) United States counts; Hawaii and territories are excluded.
What happens if the NHC later revises a storm's category?
The market resolves based on the initial advisory, but subsequent corrections are considered if they indicate a qualifying landfall.
When does the market close?
It runs until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Any qualifying landfall through that date counts.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice