Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 100.0% — a 5.1-point move over the past day.
Around this time: June and July hottest on record in Western Europe, monitor says — Al Jazeera
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? – Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see a near-certain chance—100.0%—that at least one month of 2026 will be the hottest on record for that month. The contract resolves based on NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index.
100.0%
Updated · Volume $154.7K
The main outcome—that 2026 yields at least one record-hot month—is near-certain; other outcomes are long shots.
Context
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 96.5% to 92.7% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The market assigns a near-certain chance, at 100.0%, that at least one month of 2026 sets a new record. The contract resolves to Yes if any month in 2026 registers the highest anomaly for that calendar month in the instrumental record, with ties counted as a Yes. The primary data source is NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index table, published at the provided URL. Should that source become permanently unavailable, other NASA information will be substituted. The market may resolve as soon as qualifying data appears; if no monthly data are released by January 31, 2027, a consensus of credible sources will determine the outcome. Monthly temperature updates from NASA will be the main driver. A single month breaking its historical record triggers immediate settlement. Delays or gaps in the data feed could extend uncertainty to the fallback date. The market will cease trading no later than Jan 10, 2027.
FAQ
What counts as a record-hot month?
Any calendar month of 2026 that posts a higher global temperature anomaly than the same month in any prior year, based on NASA’s index.
What if two months tie for the hottest?
The market resolves Yes—ties count in favor of a record.
Which dataset does the market use?
NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, version 4, available in the table linked in the market description.
When does the market resolve?
It can resolve immediately upon release of qualifying data for any month. If no such data appear, the fallback deadline is January 31, 2027.
What happens if the NASA data becomes unavailable?
If the table is permanently removed, other NASA information will be used; if no NASA data by the fallback, a consensus of credible sources settles the market.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice