Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 94.6% to 96.7% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Apple expected to unveil folding iPhone as new CEO takes center stage — The Guardian
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Apple releases a foldable iPhone before 2027 at 99.8% — near-certain. Resolution requires a product to be available for purchase by the general public, not just an unveiling.
98.7%-0.5 pts 24h
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?
Updated · Volume $999.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | 99.8% | +0.2 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? | 98.7% | -0.5 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | 1.1% | +0.4 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? | 0.3% | -0.5 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 9? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The “Yes” outcome is near-certain, while the “No” side remains a distant possibility.
Context
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 90.5% to 96.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.2% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 90.8% to 96.2% — a 5.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 92.3% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 95.3% to 94.0% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 98.2% to 92.8% — a 5.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 98.2% — a 4.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 88.5% to 96.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 74.0% to 86.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has settled at 99.8% and has fluctuated from 56.0% to 99.6% over the period tracked. The 24-hour change is -0.5 pts. Total volume reached $999.9K. The market resolves to “Yes” if Apple releases a foldable iPhone that is available for purchase by the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement or unveiling alone does not qualify. The device need not be branded as an iPhone—any foldable smartphone from Apple counts. The primary resolution source is an official statement from Apple, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. What would move the number is any concrete progress toward a product that meets the deadline of Dec 31, 2026. An official Apple statement or credible report confirming a release within the timeframe would push the probability higher, while indications of a delay beyond the cutoff would push it lower. Market data updated 4 min ago.
FAQ
What exactly counts as a release?
The product must be available for purchase by the general public. An announcement or unveiling without availability does not qualify.
Does the device have to be called an iPhone?
No. Any foldable smartphone released by Apple will count, even if it is not branded as an iPhone.
How is the outcome decided?
The primary source is an official statement from Apple. If that is absent, a consensus of credible reports may be used.
What is the deadline?
The release must occur by Dec 31, 2026 (Eastern Time).
What happens if Apple releases a foldable phone after the deadline?
The market would resolve to “No” — only releases within the timeframe count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice