Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 74.0% to 63.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance at 63.5%, a level best described as the favored outcome. To resolve Yes, Apple must sell a MacBook with a full touchscreen — a Touch Bar doesn't count.
63.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $74.8K
The Yes/No outcome dominates trading; all other scenarios are distant tail risks.
Context
Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 57.0% to 68.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 58.0% to 61.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 58.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 65.0% to 55.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 65.0% to 58.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 72.0% to 61.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 85.5% to 67.5% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 62.0% to 76.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
The contract currently trades at 63.5%. Over the period it has moved between 48.5% and 86.0%. The market resolves to Yes only if Apple officially releases a MacBook with a true touchscreen by Jan 1, 2027. A mere announcement isn't enough — the device must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe. The product must be explicitly branded as a MacBook; an iMac or a Touch Bar-equipped model won't qualify. Resolution relies primarily on official Apple statements, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The binding deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Anything that alters the likelihood of a qualifying release before that date — a product announcement, credible leaks, or official confirmation — could shift the price. The market will ultimately settle based on Apple's own word or widely accepted reporting.
FAQ
What qualifies as a touchscreen MacBook?
A MacBook with a true touchscreen, not a Touch Bar. It must be branded as a MacBook by Apple and sold to the general public.
Does an announcement count as a release?
No. The product must be available for purchase by the general public by the deadline. An unveiling without sales won't resolve the market to Yes.
Would a touchscreen iMac count?
No. The device must be explicitly branded a MacBook. An iMac or any other product line does not qualify.
How will the market be resolved?
Resolution is based primarily on official statements from Apple. If those are unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice