Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 28.5% to 15.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
CoinGecko 2026 Acquisition Odds
Prediction markets give a 13.5% chance that CoinGecko is acquired before 2026 ends — unlikely.
13.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $31.1K
The 'Yes' outcome holds substantial minority support, while the base case remains 'No'.
Context
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 17.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has ranged from 9.5% to 15.5% and currently stands at 13.5%. It moved -0.5 pts over the last day
The market resolves 'Yes' if credible reporting confirms an agreement to acquire CoinGecko by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Mergers where CoinGecko is subsumed count. An announced agreement qualifies regardless of whether the deal closes. The primary source is official information from CoinGecko or its leadership, though a consensus of credible reporting also suffices. The probability will react to credible reports of an acquisition offer or agreement, as well as any official statement from CoinGecko. As the Jan 1, 2027 deadline approaches without news, the odds could drift lower; any hint of a deal could send them sharply higher. Regulatory or competitive developments that make an acquisition more or less plausible also influence the price.
FAQ
What counts as an acquisition for this market?
Any agreement by an entity to acquire CoinGecko, including mergers where CoinGecko is subsumed, resolves the market as 'Yes'. The deal does not need to close.
What sources determine the resolution?
Official information from CoinGecko’s company or leadership, or a consensus of credible reporting, will be used.
When does the market resolve?
If an acquisition agreement is confirmed before the end of 2026, it resolves 'Yes'. Otherwise, it resolves 'No' after December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Can the market resolve early?
Yes, if credible reporting confirms an acquisition agreement at any point before the deadline, the market will resolve 'Yes' promptly.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice