Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 4.0% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
Dune 3 vs. Avengers: Doomsday Opening Weekend Odds
Markets price the chance that Dune 3 outearns Avengers: Doomsday domestically during their December 2026 opening weekend at 2.8%, a figure that puts the outcome in a long shot territory. Trading volume has reached $53.8K.
2.8%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $53.8K
Markets consider a Dune 3 opening weekend win a long shot, so an Avengers: Doomsday victory—or a tie—is the overwhelming favorite.
Context
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.8% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 3.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 6.9% to 4.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 6.6% to 3.9% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 6.2% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 49.8% to 5.1% — a 44.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 7.1% to 49.8% — a 42.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 3.5% to 7.7% — a 4.2-point move over the past day.
The contract's price has moved In the last 24 hours it shifted 0.0 pts, Currently at 2.8%, the line has consistently reflected a a long shot outcome. Resolution rests on domestic opening-weekend grosses from December 18 through December 20, 2026, as recorded by The Numbers. Once the site’s “Weekend Box Office Performance” figures are final, the film with the higher tally wins. A tie goes to the alphabetically first title. If release dates shift, the comparison uses the new opening weekends, provided both occur before February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET—otherwise the market settles at 50-50. Any development that materially affects the relative box office prospects could nudge the probability. That includes official tracking data, changes to release dates, or delays in production. The resolution source offers a final backstop: if no final data appears by December 31, 2026, another credible source will be chosen.
FAQ
How is the opening weekend gross defined?
It’s the domestic box office for the 3-day weekend (December 18–20, 2026) as reported by The Numbers under “Weekend Box Office Performance,” typically including Thursday previews.
What happens if the release dates change?
The market compares the opening weekend gross of each film whenever they are released, and resolves when both opening weekend figures are finalized.
What if both films gross exactly the same amount?
The market resolves in favor of the film whose title comes first alphabetically.
When does the market resolve?
After both films’ opening weekends have passed and The Numbers publishes final figures, with a latest possible resolution by December 31, 2026, unless a film is delayed—then the long-stop is February 28, 2027.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice