Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 41.8% to 9.0% — a 32.8-point move over the past day.
Will Faker win 2026 Finals MVP? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Faker's chance of capturing a 2026 international Finals MVP at 5.2%, a unlikely proposition.
5.2%+0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $106.5K
The 'Yes' bet is the featured outcome, but at unlikely odds the 'No' contract is heavily favored.
Context
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 6.8% to 41.8% — a 35.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 26.9% to 5.2% — a 21.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 5.8% to 26.9% — a 21.2-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 23.9% to 12.1% — a 11.8-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 13.0% to 23.9% — a 10.9-point move over the past day.
The contract has fluctuated over the period, ranging from 4.9% to 47.5% and currently stands at 5.2%. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Lee 'Faker' Sang-hyeok is officially announced as Finals MVP of any recognized international League of Legends event in 2026—such as First Stand, MSI, Esports World Cup, or Worlds. If no such award is announced for him by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it becomes impossible earlier (for example, his team is eliminated from all remaining international events without an MVP award), the contract settles as 'No'. Resolution draws on official LoL Esports channels, Riot Games announcements, or a consensus of credible reporting. Key calendar moments that could shift the odds include scheduled international tournaments throughout 2026, with a hard deadline of Jan 1, 2027. Any mid-season or year-end MVP reveal will directly affect the price, as will news of T1's qualification for international events.
FAQ
What counts as an international event for this market?
Any officially recognized global Riot Games LoL tournament—First Stand, MSI, Esports World Cup, Worlds, or similar events. The market description provides a non-exhaustive list.
How is the Finals MVP determined?
The market relies on the official announcement from Riot Games or LoL Esports channels. If those are unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
What happens if Faker doesn't play in any international event in 2026?
The market would resolve to 'No' because it becomes impossible for him to win the award. Similarly, if his team participates but he is not named MVP, it resolves 'No'.
When does the market definitively settle?
It settles by the end of 2026 at the latest, unless resolution occurs earlier based on an official announcement or impossibility.
Are there any scenarios where the market could resolve early?
Yes, if Faker is named Finals MVP before the end of the year, the market would resolve to 'Yes' early. Conversely, if all possible events conclude without him winning, it would resolve to 'No' early.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice