Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 1.5% to 4.7% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
Will GTA 6 Launch at a Premium? Market Odds
Traders assessing the upcoming Grand Theft Auto VI release give a 2.4% probability that its standard edition will land at a premium price point when it finally hits shelves.
2.4%-0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $415.2K
The 'Yes' outcome is the focus, with all other possibilities treated as long shots.
Context
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 1.8% to 4.3% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 1.9% to 3.5% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 1.9% to 3.1% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
The probability has traced a range, and now sits at 2.4%. This market resolves to 'Yes' if the standard edition of GTA 6 launches at or above a designated price threshold on either the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store in the United States, before tax. If the two stores list different prices, the lower one counts, and only versions without any DLC or extras qualify. Should the title miss its release window entirely and fail to arrive by Mar 1, 2027, the resolution flips to 'No'. When store data is ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting settles the outcome. The conditions that could alter the probability are the official release date, any announcement of a delay, and the eventual pricing reveal. The resolution deadline of Mar 1, 2027 acts as a fixed backstop, while the primary sources—the digital storefronts—remain the formal arbiters.
FAQ
How is the threshold price defined?
The market requires the standard edition to reach a specific dollar value on launch day in the U.S., as listed on the Xbox or PlayStation digital stores, before tax. The exact figure is part of the market’s terms.
What if the game is delayed?
If GTA 6 does not release by a predetermined cutoff date, the market resolves to 'No', regardless of any later pricing. That date is fixed in the resolution rules.
Which store determines the price if they differ?
The lower of the two prices—Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store—is used. Only the base game, without any downloadable content, is considered.
What happens after the release?
Resolution relies first on the official store listings. If those are unclear, credible media reports are used to determine whether the price met the threshold.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice