Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 17.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Half-Life 3 Announcement Odds: Live Probability
Markets price the chance of a Half-Life 3 announcement at 16.5%, putting it in the unlikely category. For a 'Yes,' Valve would need to explicitly confirm production of a game titled 'Half-Life 3.'
16.5%-5.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $122.9K
The market's sole actively traded outcome is a 'Yes' announcement, currently priced as unlikely.
Context
Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 21.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 18.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 24.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 23.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 18.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 22.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 22.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
The probability currently sits at 16.5%. The market has traded between 11.0% and 46.0% over the observed period. The market resolves to 'Yes' if, by Jan 1, 2027, Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production. The title must contain the exact phrase 'Half-Life 3'; announcements of expansions or other sequels (such as Half-Life: Alyx or Half-Life 2: Episode One) do not qualify. If no such announcement occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to 'No'. The resolution source is official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources. The probability will shift if Valve makes a qualifying announcement or as the Jan 1, 2027 deadline approaches without one. Official Valve statements and the consensus of credible sources form the resolution benchmark.
FAQ
What qualifies as an announcement for this market?
Valve must publicly and explicitly state that Half-Life 3 is in production. Rumors, leaks, or indirect hints do not count.
Does Half-Life: Alyx or Episode One count?
No. The game must have the words 'Half-Life 3' in the title. Any other expansion or sequel, regardless of its connection to the series, will not trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
What happens if the game is announced but not called 'Half-Life 3'?
The market would resolve to 'No'. Only a title explicitly containing 'Half-Life 3' meets the criteria.
What is the resolution source?
Official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources. The market does not rely on a single publication or unverified report.
What if Valve announces after December 31, 2026?
Announcements made after 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, do not count. The market would resolve to 'No' in that case.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice