Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Odds & Probability
The probability of the Second Coming occurring by the end of 2026 stands at 1.5%, making it effectively ruled out according to traders.
Updated · Volume $65.4M
The "No" outcome dominates the market, while "Yes" remains effectively ruled out.
Context
Currently, the market prices the chance of Jesus Christ's return before 2027 at 1.5%. The market resolves to "Yes" if the Second Coming occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, as determined by a consensus of credible sources. Otherwise, it settles to "No."
The primary factor that could shift this probability is the approach of the resolution date Jan 1, 2027, along with any reports or declarations from credible sources that might influence the consensus. The market's assessment hinges on the perceived likelihood that such a religious event will occur within the given timeframe.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It predicts whether the Second Coming of Jesus Christ will happen by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
How is the resolution decided?
A consensus of credible sources determines if the event occurred by the deadline. If so, the market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, "No."
What if no consensus is reached?
In the absence of a credible consensus that the Second Coming took place, the market would resolve to "No," consistent with its stated rules.
What is the cutoff date?
The cutoff is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
Does anything else affect the outcome?
Only the occurrence of the Second Coming by that date matters. Other religious or global events are not considered.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice