Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Odds & Probability

Markets price the chance of Grok AI beating esports powerhouse T1 in a League of Legends match next year at 2.0%, an outcome considered a long shot.

2.0%+0.1 pts 24h

Updated · Volume $85.0K

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Markets see a Grok AI victory as a long shot at 2.0%, making a 'No' resolution the overwhelming favorite.

Context

Markets currently price the probability at 2.0%. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if Grok AI officially defeats T1 in an exhibition or competitive League of Legends match during 2026. In all other scenarios—including where no match occurs or a winner cannot be determined by Jan 1, 2027—it settles to 'No'. Official announcements from T1, X, and Riot Games serve as primary resolution sources, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The probability could shift in response to announcements of a scheduled match, confirmed dates, or statements from either side about the possibility of a game. The resolution deadline of Jan 1, 2027 provides a hard stop.

FAQ

What exactly is the market predicting?

Whether Grok AI will officially defeat T1 in any exhibition or competitive League of Legends match played in 2026.

What counts as an official defeat?

The resolution relies on official announcements from T1, X (the company behind Grok AI), or Riot Games. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What happens if no match between Grok AI and T1 takes place?

The market resolves to 'No.' The same applies if a match occurs but no winner can be determined for any reason.

Is there a deadline for the match to happen?

Yes, the match must be played and a winner determined by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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