Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 95.0% to 96.9% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
2026 Midterms: Will They Happen as Scheduled? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets put the odds of the 2026 midterm elections proceeding as planned at 96.1%, making the scheduled vote near-certain.
96.1%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $376.5K
The 'Yes' outcome is near-certain, while the possibility of a disruption remains a long shot.
Context
The price currently sits at 96.1%. In the last 24 hours it has moved 0.0 pts,
This market resolves to 'Yes' if the elections take place on Dec 31, 2026, and to 'No' otherwise. The resolution relies primarily on official information from the US government, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. The price will shift if new information emerges about the likelihood of the elections being held on that date. Any formal government announcement or widely accepted media reports that cast doubt on the schedule would move the market.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It predicts whether the 2026 US Midterm Elections will be held on their scheduled date.
How is the outcome decided?
The market resolves to 'Yes' if the elections occur on Dec 31, 2026, and 'No' if they do not.
What sources are used to determine the result?
The primary source is official information from the US government. When that is not available, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
Could the market resolve early?
No, the market resolves after the scheduled election date, regardless of earlier developments.
What happens if the elections are postponed or rescheduled?
Any deviation from Dec 31, 2026 would cause the market to resolve to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice