Will Trump Pardon SBF by July 31? Current Odds & Probability
As of 11 min ago, prediction markets give a Trump pardon for SBF a 0.4% chance, putting it in the effectively ruled out category. The contract’s deadline is Jul 31, 2026.
Updated · Volume $674.8K
The 'Yes' outcome is priced as a remote tail event; the 'No' side absorbs virtually all the probability mass.
Context
The market has been consistently quiet. and currently sits at 0.4%. The market resolves to Yes if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by the deadline. If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue such clemency within the timeframe, the market can resolve to No early. Resolution relies on official US government announcements or, absent those, a consensus of credible reporting. The passing of time is the main factor: as the deadline Jul 31, 2026 approaches without action, expectations of a pardon naturally decay. Any official clemency action, or reporting indicating it is under consideration, would be the primary event that could shift the price. Conversely, news that a pardon is logistically or legally impossible within the window would reinforce the downward pressure.
FAQ
What counts as a pardon for this market?
The market covers any presidential pardon, commutation of sentence, or reprieve granted to Sam Bankman-Fried by Donald Trump.
What happens if Trump is no longer president?
If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon within the timeframe, the market resolves to No.
How is the outcome determined?
The primary source is official information from the US government. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
When exactly does the market close?
The deadline is July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Any pardon must be granted by then.
What if someone else pardons SBF?
Only a pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump triggers a Yes resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice