Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 33.5% to 100.0% — a 66.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: France vs England LIVE: FIFA World Cup 2026 third-place playoff — Al Jazeera
World Cup 3rd Place Finish: Odds & Probability
Markets price England's chance of finishing third in the 2026 World Cup at 100.0%, making them near-certain to win the third-place match.
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World CupEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $451.4K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Country B finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another country finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will France finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Spain finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Argentina finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Country A finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
England dominated the market, while the rest of the field was considered a long shot.
Context
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 71.5% — a 35.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: World Cup third-place playoff: What are France and England playing for? — Al Jazeera
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 64.5% to 55.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: World Cup third-place playoff: What are France and England playing for? — Al Jazeera
England's odds stood at 100.0%, reflecting near-certainty among traders that the team would claim third place. The market resolves to Yes if England finishes third in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official third-place match winner. If England is eliminated from contention for third, it settles to No. Should the tournament be cancelled, postponed beyond August 2nd, 2026, or no third-place match held, the outcome is Other. Final settlement relies on official FIFA information, supplemented by credible reporting if necessary.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to Yes if England officially finishes third in the 2026 World Cup. If England is knocked out before the third-place match, it resolves to No. If the tournament is cancelled or no third-place match is played, it resolves to Other.
What if there's a tie for third?
The market follows the official FIFA designation. If multiple teams are awarded third, the team listed first alphabetically wins.
When will the outcome be known?
The market settles after the third-place match is completed and FIFA confirms the result, unless England is eliminated earlier.
What is the resolution source?
Official FIFA announcements, with credible reporting as a secondary source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice