Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 0.5% to 100.0% — a 99.5-point move over the past day.
World Cup: Fair Play Award Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Netherlands at 100.0% to claim the Fair Play Award at the 2026 World Cup, making them the near-certain favorite. The market will resolve to 'Other' should the tournament be cancelled or postponed beyond Jul 20, 2026.
50.0%
Will Team C win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Updated · Volume $437.4K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Team C win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will another team win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Team D win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Team A win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Team B win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Team E win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will England win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1.9% | — |
| Will Morocco win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1.7% | — |
| Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will United States win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Curaçao win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Sweden win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Paraguay win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will New Zealand win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Tunisia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Uruguay win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Cape Verde win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Australia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Saudi Arabia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Ecuador win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Iran win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Portugal win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Qatar win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Scotland win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Canada win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Croatia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Egypt win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Ivory Coast win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Mexico win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Colombia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jordan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Haiti win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Senegal win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Belgium win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Ghana win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Bosnia & Herzegovina win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Brazil win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Czechia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will France win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Switzerland win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Iraq win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Türkiye win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will DR Congo win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Uzbekistan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Panama win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Austria win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Argentina win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will South Korea win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Algeria win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Norway win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will South Africa win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
The Netherlands are the near-certain favorite; a handful of teams sit at coin-flip levels, while the remaining five outcomes are long shots.
Context
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 0.8% to 98.0% — a 97.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 81.9% — a 3.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 78.3% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 89.8% to 78.8% — a 10.9-point move over the past day.
Netherlands' probability currently stands at 100.0%. The market resolves to the nation winning FIFA's Fair Play Award for the 2026 World Cup. If FIFA declares a tie, the official FIFA-determined winner takes it; when multiple winners are announced, the nation whose name comes first alphabetically is selected. No winner declared by Jul 20, 2026 forces a resolution to 'Other'. The resolution source is official FIFA information, supplemented if necessary by a consensus of credible reporting. The primary drivers are the resolution deadline (Jul 20, 2026) and FIFA's official award announcement. Any credible reporting that identifies a likely winner could shift sentiment. Changes to the World Cup schedule that risk cancellation or postponement beyond the cutoff would also affect the market.
FAQ
How is the Fair Play Award winner determined?
The market resolves to the team that FIFA names as the official winner of the Fair Play Award for the 2026 World Cup.
What happens if there is a tie?
If FIFA declares a tie, the market resolves to the winner as determined by FIFA's tie-breaking rules. Should FIFA announce multiple winners, the team whose name comes first alphabetically is used.
What if the World Cup is cancelled?
If the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond Jul 20, 2026 and no winner is declared by then, the market resolves to 'Other'.
What is the resolution source?
Official FIFA information is the primary source; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice