France’s World Cup Fate: Semifinal Exit Odds
Markets price a French semifinal departure at 100.0%, a near-certain outcome. A catch-all 'other' scenario sits at a tossup, but precise alternatives remain remote.
Will France finish in some other position in the World Cup?
Updated · Volume $356.4K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will France finish in some other position in the World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will France win the World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will France be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
The semifinal exit dominates; the broad 'other' scenario is a coin flip, while the handful of precise positions are long shots.
Context
The line for France exiting in the semifinals sits at 100.0%. The level has stayed elevated, with only minor fluctuations. This market resolves based on FIFA's official stage of elimination for France at the 2026 World Cup. If France wins, the market resolves to 'Champion.' If France is disqualified, withdraws, or is removed, or if the tournament is partially completed and not finished, it resolves to the furthest completed round. A full cancellation or postponement past Jul 19, 2026 (the resolution deadline) triggers an 'Other' resolution. Sources are official FIFA information or a consensus of credible reporting. Any formal change to France's tournament status would shift the price. The key event is the 2026 FIFA World Cup itself, with resolution by Jul 19, 2026. The market listens solely to FIFA announcements: official match results and any decisions on disqualification or tournament adjustments.
FAQ
What happens if France wins the World Cup?
The market resolves to 'Champion' regardless of earlier predictions.
How is elimination stage determined if France is disqualified before a match?
It resolves to the furthest round France had officially completed prior to disqualification, per FIFA or credible reporting.
What if the tournament is delayed but still held?
The market resolves normally to the elimination stage. Cancellation or postponement past the deadline yields 'Other.'
What is the resolution source?
Official FIFA information is primary; a consensus of credible reporting serves as a fallback.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice