Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 100.0% — a 22.5-point move over the past day.
World Cup: Furthest Advancing UEFA Nation — Market Odds
Spain is trading at 100.0% as the likely furthest advancing UEFA nation at the 2026 World Cup, a level that has and is near-certain.
50.0%
Will another UEFA nation be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?
Updated · Volume $684.7K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Spain be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will another UEFA nation be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Country A be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will England be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Netherlands be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Norway be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Belgium be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Austria be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Germany be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Scotland be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Switzerland be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Türkiye be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Czechia be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Croatia be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Sweden be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
Spain is near-certain at 100.0% to be the furthest advancing UEFA nation; two other nations are finely balanced, while every remaining outcome is a long shot.
Context
Spain's implied chance has traded, currently resting at 100.0%. The market resolves to the UEFA nation that reaches the latest stage of the World Cup. If multiple nations exit at the same stage, tiebreakers apply: first total main-tournament wins, then total goals scored, then fewest goals conceded. If still tied, the nation coming first alphabetically wins. Should the tournament be cancelled, postponed, or no clear furthest nation be determinable by the resolution date, the market settles to 'No'. What would move the number? Official FIFA results form the resolution source, supplemented by credible reporting. The market will dissolve when the tournament concludes, or earlier if a cancellation is confirmed. The resolution deadline sits at Jul 20, 2026; any extension past that could trigger a 'No' settlement.
FAQ
How does the market determine the furthest advancing nation?
It looks at the round reached. The nation that survives to the latest stage wins. If more than one exits in the same round, tiebreakers are used.
What are the tiebreakers?
Total wins across all main tournament rounds comes first. Then total goals scored, followed by fewest goals conceded. Alphabetical order is the final tiebreaker.
What happens if the World Cup is cancelled?
If the tournament is cancelled, or if no furthest nation can be determined by the resolution date, the market resolves to 'No'.
Which nations are included in UEFA?
All nations that FIFA classifies as UEFA members for the 2026 World Cup.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice