Jul 20, 2026
Resolved: Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — NO. A week before, markets priced it at 34%.
World Cup: Result & Final Odds
The prediction market on who would be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup concluded, with Kylian Mbappé settling as the winner at 100.0%.
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World CupResolved — markets priced this at 100% a week before
Updated · Volume $76.7M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player J be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AA be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AH be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Antoine Semenyo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AI be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player R be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player N be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AF be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player Q be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player Z be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AG be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player X be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player S be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player O be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player U be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player I be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AC be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AD be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player L be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player P be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AB be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player K be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player Y be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AE be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will someone else be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Dion Beljo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player T be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player W be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Tim Payne be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player M be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player V be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
The winning outcome resolved to Kylian Mbappé as the top goalscorer, while all other contenders did not resolve in their favour.
Context
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 43.5% to 93.5% — a 50.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 41.5% to 82.5% — a 41.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 60.2% to 57.6% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Which players are favourites to be FIFA World Cup 2026 award winners? — Al Jazeera
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 64.0% to 58.8% — a 5.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Which players are favourites to be FIFA World Cup 2026 award winners? — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 51.3% to 64.0% — a 12.7-point move over the past day.
At resolution, Kylian Mbappé had dominated the market for the World Cup Golden Boot, settling at 100.0%. A week before the market resolved, the probability was 100.0%. The contract settled based on the player with the most goals across all main tournament rounds, as determined by FIFA. The resolution rules specified that in a tie, the winner would be the official FIFA leader, with further tie-breaks by fewer penalty kicks then alphabetical last name. Mbappé emerged as the market’s winner.
FAQ
When did the market resolve?
The market resolved on Jul 20, 2026, after the conclusion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the official announcement of the Golden Boot winner.
What were the tie-break rules?
If multiple players tied on goals, the market resolved to FIFA’s official leader. If multiple leaders were announced, the tie was broken by fewer penalty kicks, then by alphabetically first last name.
Did Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Boot?
The prediction market resolved in favour of Kylian Mbappé as the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, settling at 100.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice