Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 53.0% to 100.0% — a 47.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Kylian Mbappe breaks all-time World Cup scoring record with 22nd goal — Al Jazeera
Kylian Mbappé 2026 World Cup Goals Probability
Markets price Mbappé to hit the 2-goal mark as near-certain, at 100.0%.
50.0%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 14+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Updated · Volume $325.7K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 14+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 12+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 13+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappe score 15+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
Markets see Mbappé scoring at least twice as near-certain, while the highest thresholds—from 13+ to 15+ goals—are finely balanced.
Context
The probability has held near 100.0%.. The market resolves to “Yes” if Mbappé scores at least the listed number of goals during the 2026 World Cup, counting only regular-time, stoppage-time, and extra-time goals that appear on FIFA’s official scoresheet. Penalty shootout goals and own goals are excluded. If Mbappé does not appear in the tournament, the market resolves to “No.” A cancellation or a failure to determine his goal tally leads to a 50-50 settlement. Any news about Mbappé’s fitness, tactical role, or France’s tournament draw could shift the number, but only his actual goals—as recorded by FIFA—will settle the market.
FAQ
What counts as a goal for this market?
Only goals scored during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time of 2026 World Cup matches that are credited on FIFA’s official scoresheet. Penalty shootout goals and own goals do not count.
What if Kylian Mbappé does not play in the tournament?
If he does not play for any reason, the market resolves to “No” for all goal thresholds.
What happens if the World Cup is cancelled or postponed?
How is the resolution decided?
The primary source is official FIFA information; a consensus of credible reporting may be used if FIFA’s records are insufficient.
Does this include goals in friendlies or qualifiers?
No. Only goals scored during the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament are considered.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice