World Cup: Lionel Messi Goals: Live Odds & Probability
Markets price a Messi goal at the 2026 World Cup as near-certain; the probability sits at 100.0% 58 d ago. The prospect of even a single strike is all but priced in.
Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Updated · Volume $507.8K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 12+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Lionel Messi score 13+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
The market considers a single Messi goal near-certain, with tallies up to eight also all but priced in; beyond that, probabilities slip to favored, minority, and unlikely territory, and the highest thresholds are long shots.
Context
The odds on Messi netting at least once have moved over the period. The current level reflects a market that sees little doubt about his ability to score. The market resolves per its stated terms. A 'Yes' for a given threshold requires Messi to score the listed number of goals during the 2026 World Cup, counting only regular-time, stoppage-time, and extra-time tallies as recorded on FIFA's official scoresheet. Penalty shootout strikes and own goals are excluded. If Messi does not participate, all markets settle as 'No'. Should the tournament be cancelled or postponed beyond the rules' deadline, the outcome becomes '50-50'. The resolution hinges on FIFA's official records. The tournament's start and any news concerning Messi's playing status are the primary formal triggers; the cutoff date for postponement also creates a binary condition. The source of truth is FIFA's data, supplemented by credible reporting when necessary.
FAQ
What goals count toward the total?
Only goals scored during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time that are credited on FIFA's official scoresheet. Penalty shootout goals and own goals do not count.
What happens if Messi does not play?
The market resolves to 'No' for all thresholds if he does not feature in any match at the 2026 World Cup.
What if the tournament is cancelled or postponed?
If the World Cup is cancelled or postponed past the cutoff specified in the rules, the market resolves to '50-50'.
How is the result determined?
The resolution source is FIFA's official information, though a consensus of credible reporting may be used if FIFA's data is incomplete.
Do goals in penalty shootouts count?
No, penalty shootout goals are explicitly excluded from the tally.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice