Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 99.5% — a 23.0-point move over the past day.
World Cup: Shirt Manufacturer Worn by Champion Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Adidas a 100.0% chance of being the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion, a near-certain position. The market will resolve based on photos or videos from the final, or official media from the winning brand or team.
50.0%
Will another brand be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion?
Updated · Volume $48.3K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 100.0% | — |
| Will another brand be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Brand D be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Brand C be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Brand B be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Brand A be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Saeta be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Marathon be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Majid be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Jako be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Puma be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Kappa be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Reebok be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Brand E be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will 7Saber be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Umbro be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Capelli be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Kelme be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? | 0.0% | — |
Adidas is near-certain to manufacture the champion’s shirt, while all other outcomes sit at much lower probabilities, with no single alternative coming close.
Context
The contract hovering at 100.0%
To settle, the market identifies the brand producing the shirt worn by the champion in the 2026 World Cup. If the same team wears more than one brand during the tournament, or if the event is cancelled or postponed beyond August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the brand cannot be determined by that time, the contract resolves to “Other”. The primary source is official imagery from the final or statements from the brand or winning federation. Several formal conditions could shift the probability. The resolution deadline is one; any clarity before then on which national sides are likely to progress further can recast the odds, since different contenders wear different manufacturers. A change in sponsorship deals announced before the tournament would also reroute the market, given that the final visual and press confirmation is the definitive settlement trigger.
FAQ
How does the market determine which brand a team wears?
The resolution source is photos or videos from the World Cup final, or official media from the shirt brand or winning team. If that evidence is inconclusive or unavailable by the deadline, the market resolves to “Other”.
What happens if the World Cup is postponed or cancelled?
If the tournament is cancelled or postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other”. A postponement before that cutoff would not automatically move the resolution to “Other”, but the market might stay open longer depending on the new schedule.
Can a team change its kit manufacturer during the World Cup?
The market rules specify that if the champion wears more than one brand during the tournament, the outcome is “Other”. It is uncommon for a team to switch suppliers mid-tournament, but the rule exists to cover edge cases.
When will the market be settled?
The market aims to resolve as soon as the champion’s shirt brand is confirmed in the final. The hard deadline is August 2, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If no determination is made by then, it resolves to “Other”.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice