Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 3.1% to 100.0% — a 96.8-point move over the past day.
World Cup 2026 Silver Ball Winner Odds
Markets see a 100.0% probability that Lionel Messi wins the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The award is decided by FIFA after the final.
50.0%
Will Player L win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Updated · Volume $324.3K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Player L win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player S win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player R win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player J win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will someone else win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player H win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player D win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player E win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player N win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player Q win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player G win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player O win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player F win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player A win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player I win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player K win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player P win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player B win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player T win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player M win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Player C win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Bruno Fernandes win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Gavi win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Declan Rice win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Harry Kane win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Vitinha win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Erling Haaland win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Florian Wirtz win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Pedri win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jude Bellingham win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Neymar win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Bukayo Saka win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Vinícius Jr. win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Rayan Cherki win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Michael Olise win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Rodri win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | — |
Lionel Messi is the near-certain favorite for the Silver Ball, with the remaining contenders each priced at coin-flip levels, far behind.
Context
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 98.4% — a 94.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.4% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 29.0% to 57.0% — a 27.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 52.0% — a 9.4-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 44.4% to 60.4% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 23.9% to 52.2% — a 28.3-point move over the past day.
Lionel Messi’s contract currently trades at 100.0%. The market settles on the official Silver Ball recipient as announced by FIFA. If FIFA names multiple winners, the contract resolves to the one whose last name appears first alphabetically. Should the World Cup be cancelled or postponed past August 2, 2026, the market will resolve to ‘Other’. Resolution relies on official FIFA communications, though a consensus of credible journalism may substitute if necessary. The main event that will settle the market is the 2026 World Cup final, scheduled for Jul 20, 2026. Until then, any news affecting Lionel Messi’s participation or performance could shift the odds, as could developments concerning other contenders. However, the contract’s terms tie settlement strictly to FIFA’s official award announcement.
FAQ
How is the Silver Ball winner determined?
FIFA awards the Silver Ball to the second-best player of the tournament, as voted by its technical study group, after the final match.
What happens if the 2026 World Cup is cancelled?
If the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond August 2, 2026, this market resolves to ‘Other’.
What if multiple players are named Silver Ball winners?
The contract settles on the winner whose last name comes first alphabetically, following FIFA’s official announcement.
What sources are used to settle the market?
Resolution relies on official information from FIFA, but a consensus of credible reporting may be used if FIFA’s announcement is unclear.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice