2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open at 27.5%.
27.5%+2.0 pts 24h
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Updated · Volume $12.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 27.5% | +2.0 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 22.3% | -0.8 |
| Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 9.3% | +2.3 |
| Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 7.9% | +0.4 |
| Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 6.9% | +0.5 |
| Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 6.9% | -3.0 |
| Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 4.5% | +1.2 |
| Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 3.4% | +0.9 |
| Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 3.4% | +0.5 |
| Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 3.1% | +1.3 |
| Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 1.2% | +0.1 |
| Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Valentin Vacherot win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Luciano Darderi win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Q win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player V win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player X win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player S win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Alex de Minaur win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Z win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Tomas Martin Etcheverry win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Brandon Nakashima win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player R win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player U win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player T win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player P win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Holger Rune win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player W win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player O win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Y win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 72.7% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 49 tracked outcomes and $12.4M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open, is priced at 27.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice