2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections at 45.5%.

45.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

Updated · Volume $133.2K

44%45%46%48%Aug 15Aug 23Aug 30Sep 7Sep 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?45.5%0.0
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?27.5%0.0
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?22.0%+0.5
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?19.5%0.0
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?10.5%-0.5
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?6.8%-0.2
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?6.7%-0.9
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?3.1%+0.1
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?2.6%+0.1
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?2.1%+0.1
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?1.9%0.0
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 6% or more?1.4%0.0
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more?1.0%+0.1
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?0.7%0.0

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 14 tracked outcomes and $133.2K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, is priced at 45.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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