2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections at 45.5%.
45.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
Updated · Volume $133.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections? | 45.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%? | 27.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%? | 22.0% | +0.5 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%? | 19.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%? | 10.5% | -0.5 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%? | 6.8% | -0.2 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%? | 6.7% | -0.9 |
| Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%? | 3.1% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? | 2.6% | +0.1 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%? | 2.1% | +0.1 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? | 1.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 6% or more? | 1.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more? | 1.0% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 14 tracked outcomes and $133.2K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, is priced at 45.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice