Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 75.5% to 99.6% — a 24.1-point move over the past day.
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood of Barisan Nasional (BN) securing the most seats in the Negeri Sembilan state election at 99.6%. The vote is set for August 1, 2026, with resolution by January 31, 2027 if a definitive result is lacking.
50.0%
Will Party I win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?
Updated · Volume $169.6K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 99.6% | — |
| Will Party I win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party R win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will another party win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party N win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party C win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party H win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party O win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party E win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party Q win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party L win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party P win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party F win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party J win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party M win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party B win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party G win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party K win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Party D win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 50.0% | — |
| Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 0.1% | — |
| Will PN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Bersatu win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | 0.1% | — |
Beyond BN, the remaining eleven listed parties all trade as tossups. Party C (close to a coin flip), Party L (close to a coin flip), Party N (close to a coin flip), and the rest of the field, including Party P (close to a coin flip), each hover at close to a coin flip, suggesting a wide-open contest.
Context
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 72.5% to 81.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 64.0% to 74.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 61.0% to 71.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 50.5% to 67.5% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
The contract tracks which party or coalition wins the greatest number of seats in the Negeri Sembilan State Legislative Assembly. With BN priced at 99.6%, the market considers it the near-certain. The election is scheduled for August 1, 2026, and the market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, reverting to official sources if interpretation differs. Trading volume for this contract totals $169.6K. Resolution details: the market favors the party or coalition with the most seats. In a seat tie, the winner is the one with the greater number of valid votes; if still tied, the party whose abbreviation comes first alphabetically takes it. Should no election occur or results remain unknown by Aug 1, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'. A representative counts for the listed party under which they run officially, regardless of post-election coalitions.
FAQ
What probability do markets assign to a BN win?
The current market-implied probability stands at 99.6%.
How do other parties stack up?
All other parties are viewed as tossups. For instance, Party C is given a close to a coin flip chance, while Party L is at close to a coin flip. The rest, including Party N and Party P, trade at similarly finely balanced levels.
What happens if no party wins an outright majority of seats?
The market resolves based on which party wins the greatest number of seats, even if it falls short of a majority. Tie-breaking rules are applied if necessary.
How does the market resolve a tie?
In the event of a tie in seats, the market looks to the total valid votes received. If still tied, it resolves in favor of the party whose abbreviation comes first alphabetically.
What is the latest date for resolution?
If the election results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice