Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 96.3% to 93.8% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
2027 French Presidential Ballot: Mélenchon's Odds
Markets price Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s inclusion on the 2027 French presidential ballot at 96.3%, making his candidacy appear near-certain.
47.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Updated · Volume $338.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 96.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 88.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 88.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 87.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 85.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 76.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 62.0% | +5.5 |
| Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 56.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 56.0% | -4.0 |
| Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 47.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 39.0% | -1.5 |
| Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 33.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 32.0% | +1.0 |
| Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 27.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 27.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 23.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 20.0% | +2.5 |
| Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 19.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 15.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 13.9% | +0.8 |
| Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 12.6% | +0.1 |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 9.9% | -0.8 |
| Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 9.5% | +2.0 |
| Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 9.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 9.0% | +2.0 |
| Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Delphine Batho be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 8.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 8.2% | -0.2 |
| Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 7.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Jean-Michel Fauvergue be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 7.0% | +0.1 |
| Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.9% | -0.1 |
| Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.7% | +0.1 |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.6% | -0.1 |
| Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.0% | 0.0 |
| Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 5.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Manuel Valls be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 5.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 5.3% | +0.4 |
| Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 5.1% | +0.5 |
| Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 4.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 4.7% | -0.3 |
| Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 3.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Clémentine Autain be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 3.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Valérie Pécresse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 3.0% | 0.0 |
Beyond Mélenchon, several other candidates are strongly favored to appear on the ballot, while a few contests remain too close to call or tilt against inclusion.
Context
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 96.1% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.0% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 96.1% to 93.9% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
The market on Mélenchon currently stands at 96.3%. Over the period tracked, it has traded as low as 43.5% and as high as 63.0%. The market resolves “Yes” if the candidate’s name appears on the official list published by the French Constitutional Council for the first round. If no such list is published, resolution is based on who actually appears on the ballot when the election takes place. Should no list be published and the election not occur by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to “No”. The primary resolution source is the Constitutional Council’s list, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The probability could shift as the publication of the official candidate list approaches, as the election itself draws nearer, or if the June 30, 2027 deadline passes without an election taking place.
FAQ
What determines whether a candidate appears on the ballot?
The market resolves “Yes” if the candidate is included on the official list for the first round, as published by the French Constitutional Council.
What if the official list isn’t published?
The market then resolves based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election occurs. If the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to “No”.
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is the official candidate list from the Constitutional Council. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if needed.
When is the election expected?
The election is typically held in April 2027, though the exact date has not been set.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice