2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election at 53.5%.
53.5%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Updated · Volume $207.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 96.5% | +0.1 |
| Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 89.0% | +1.0 |
| Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 89.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 87.5% | -2.5 |
| Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 84.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 73.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 72.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 63.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 53.5% | — |
| Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 45.0% | — |
| Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 41.5% | — |
| Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 34.5% | — |
| Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 33.0% | — |
| Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 26.5% | — |
| Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 21.5% | — |
| Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 21.5% | — |
| Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 14.0% | — |
| Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 13.0% | — |
| Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 11.5% | — |
| Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 9.5% | — |
| Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 8.0% | — |
| Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 7.5% | — |
| Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 7.5% | — |
| Will Jean-Michel Fauvergue be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.5% | — |
| Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.5% | — |
| Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.5% | — |
| Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.3% | — |
| Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.1% | — |
| Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 6.0% | — |
| Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 5.8% | — |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 5.5% | — |
| Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 4.8% | — |
| Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 4.3% | — |
| Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 4.2% | — |
| Will Manuel Valls be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 4.1% | — |
| Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 4.0% | — |
| Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 3.8% | — |
| Will Clémentine Autain be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 3.6% | — |
| Will Delphine Batho be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 3.6% | — |
| Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 3.5% | — |
| Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 3.5% | — |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 3.4% | — |
| Will Valérie Pécresse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 1.7% | — |
| Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 1.5% | — |
| Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 1.3% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 446.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 46 tracked outcomes and $207.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election, is priced at 53.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice