AL-02 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Republican win in Alabama's 2nd congressional district at 68.0%, positioning the party as the favored outcome ahead of the November 2026 midterms. Trading volume stands at $43.3K.
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $43.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? | 68.0% | -1.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat? | 32.0% | +1.0 |
| Will D win the AL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the AL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the AL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the AL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the AL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the AL-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is the favored outcome, the Democratic Party a substantial minority view, and all other scenarios are long shots.
Context
Market data updated 16 min ago ago. The Republican probability currently sits at 68.0%. The probability has fluctuated between 68.0% and 77.5% over the period. The last day brought a -1.0 pts change. This market resolves according to the party of the winning candidate in Alabama's 2nd congressional district during the 2026 midterms. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation at the time all House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources; if no party is listed, the candidate's most recently expressed caucus intent is used. The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as a fallback if ambiguity persists. The probability can shift around concrete milestones. The official election date of Nov 3, 2026 provides a natural focal point. Once the vote is held, the market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the FEC as a backup.
FAQ
When does the market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm elections, once the winner of Alabama's 2nd congressional district is officially determined.
How is a candidate's party affiliation identified?
By their ballot-listed party at the time all House elections are called. If no party is listed, the candidate's most recently expressed intent to caucus with a party is used.
What sources are used to resolve the market?
A consensus of credible reporting determines the outcome. If ambiguity persists, the official results from the Federal Election Commission are used.
What happens if the election is disputed?
The market resolves based on the consensus of reporting at the time the elections are conclusively called. In cases of lingering ambiguity, the FEC's data provides a final answer.
Are outcomes beyond Republican and Democrat possible?
Yes, the market lists several other party outcomes, but those are currently priced at very low probabilities.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice