AL-03 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Republican Party a 96.2% chance of retaining Alabama's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterms.
Will the Republican Party win the AL-03 House seat?
Updated · Volume $42.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the AL-03 House seat? | 96.2% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AL-03 House seat? | 0.2% | -0.1 |
| Will A win the AL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the AL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the AL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the AL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the AL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the AL-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is strongly favored to hold the seat, while all other scenarios are considered long shots.
Context
The market has consistently priced a Republican victory as highly likely. The contract has moved within a range over the period. It shifted 0.0 pts in the last day and. Total volume stands at $42.6K. This market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins Alabama's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. A candidate's party is defined by their ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed, the market uses the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The election is on Nov 4, 2026, and resolution follows the consensus of credible reporting. Should the result be ambiguous, the Federal Election Commission's official tally serves as the final arbiter. The market will react to news around the race leading up to the election. The main formal resolution trigger is the vote on Nov 4, 2026, with settlement occurring once the winning party is confirmed by the resolution sources.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
The market looks at the party affiliation listed on the ballot for the winning candidate. If no party is listed, it uses the candidate's most recently expressed intent to caucus with a party.
When will the market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once credible reporting confirms the winner or, if necessary, after the Federal Election Commission releases official results.
What if the election result is disputed or unclear?
If there is ambiguity in reporting, the market resolves based on the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
What election does this market cover?
It covers the race for Alabama's 3rd congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice