Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.5% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
AL-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Republican win in Alabama's 4th congressional district at 98.0%, with the 2026 midterm election scheduled for Nov 4, 2026.
98.0%-0.1 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $38.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat? | 98.0% | -0.1 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the AL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the AL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the AL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the AL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the AL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the AL-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is near-certain to win, with all other outcomes priced as long shots.
Context
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.3% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Republican odds currently stand at 98.0%. The contract has moved -0.1 pts over the last day. Trading volume has reached $38.1K. The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate in Alabama's 4th congressional district race, part of the U.S. midterm elections on Nov 4, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome is settled by a consensus of credible news reports; if the result is ambiguous, the official tally from the Federal Election Commission serves as the final word. The key event is the election itself on Nov 4, 2026. After voters cast their ballots, the market will settle once a consensus of credible sources projects a winner, or following official FEC results should the race be tight.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner?
It resolves to the party of the candidate who wins Alabama's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterms, as reported by credible news outlets or, if ambiguous, by the FEC.
What counts as a candidate's party?
The party listed on the ballot, or if no ballot listing, the party with which the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus.
When will the market resolve?
After the election on Nov 4, 2026, once the result is clear from consensus reporting or official certification.
Could the outcome be delayed?
Yes, if the initial reporting is ambiguous, the market will wait for the official FEC result.
What if a candidate is not a Democrat or Republican?
A candidate without a ballot affiliation to either major party is assigned to the one they most recently said they would caucus with.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice