Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 97.4% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
AL-07 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Democratic Party’s chance of holding the AL-07 House seat at 98.3%, a level that makes them near-certain.
98.3%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-07 House seat?
Updated · Volume $79.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the AL-07 House seat? | 98.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the AL-07 House seat? | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the AL-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the AL-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the AL-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the AL-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the AL-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the AL-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market is overwhelmingly focused on the Democratic candidate, with all other scenarios treated as remote possibilities.
Context
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 96.2% to 94.0% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The Democratic candidate’s odds have settled at 98.3%, keeping them near-certain.. Total volume stands at $79.5K. The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins Alabama’s 7th Congressional District in the 2026 midterms, set for Nov 3, 2026. Party affiliation is determined by the ballot-listed party; if no party appears on the ballot, the market uses the party the candidate most recently indicated they would caucus with. The outcome is settled by a consensus of credible election reporting, or by the Federal Election Commission’s official tally should reports conflict. Any development that shifts views on the Democratic candidate’s prospects will move the price—candidate entries, primary outcomes, polling data, or fundraising numbers. The ultimate settlement rests on the general election result, cast on Nov 3, 2026, as confirmed by the resolution sources.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
The market looks at the ballot-listed party of the AL-07 district winner. If that party is not listed, it uses the party the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus with.
What sources are used to resolve the market?
It first seeks a consensus of credible reporting. If the result is ambiguous, the official Federal Election Commission results become the tie-breaker.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution occurs after the 2026 midterm elections, held on November 3, 2026, once a conclusive winner is called.
Does this market consider the primaries?
No, the contract covers only the general election outcome. Primaries can influence the odds but are not part of the resolution.
What happens if a candidate runs as an independent?
If no ballot-listed party is available, the market uses the party with which the candidate most recently intended to caucus. This rule handles independent or third-party candidates who align with a major party.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice