Alaska Governor Election Winner : Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election at 49.8%.

49.8%+1.9 pts 24h

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Updated · Volume $1.2M

0%20%40%60%Aug 1Aug 8Aug 16Aug 23Aug 31
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?49.8%+1.9
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?35.5%0.0
Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?10.0%-0.2
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?3.0%-0.3
Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election?2.5%+0.6
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?1.4%+0.1
Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.3%0.0
Will Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.3%0.0
Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.3%0.0
Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.3%-0.1
Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.2%-0.1
Will Bruce Walden win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will James Parkin win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will Edna DeVries win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will Destry J. Payne Sr. win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will Jessica Faircloth win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%0.0
Will another candidate win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 96.3% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 23 tracked outcomes and $1.2M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election, is priced at 49.8%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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