Alaska Governor Election Winner : Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election at 30.5%.

30.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Updated · Volume $1.1M

18%23%28%33%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?30.5%0.0
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?23.0%+1.0
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?18.3%+0.5
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?10.0%-0.1
Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?6.1%0.0
Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election?5.6%-1.4
Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election?4.5%0.0
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.9%-0.3
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.7%
Will James Parkin win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.4%
Will Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.4%
Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.4%
Will Edna DeVries win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.3%
Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.3%
Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.3%
Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.3%
Will Destry J. Payne Sr. win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%
Will Jessica Faircloth win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%
Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%
Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%
Will Bruce Walden win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%
Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.1%
Will another candidate win the 2026 Alaska governor election?0.0%

The top 5 outcomes account for 87.9% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 23 tracked outcomes and $1.1M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election, is priced at 30.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice