Sep 22, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 22.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Alexandre de Moraes Out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? Odds
Prediction markets price the probability that Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court at 14.5%, an unlikely chance. The contract would resolve to 'Yes' upon any period of absence, a formal announcement, or credible reporting of his exit.
14.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $93.9K
The market overwhelmingly favors 'No', with the 'Yes' scenario (Moraes departs) priced as unlikely.
Context
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 32.0% to 17.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Ferocious fight among Brazil’s supreme court erupts on eve of presidential election — The Guardian
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 32.5% to 11.0% — a 21.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 46.0% to 37.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Brazil’s Supreme Court shuts down early as political chaos mounts — Al Jazeera
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 30.5% to 45.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Brazil’s Supreme Court shuts down early as political chaos mounts — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 27.5% to 45.5% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 24.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 31.5% to 19.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 8.5% to 24.0% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 8.0% to 24.0% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
The market currently assigns a 14.5% probability to the 'Yes' outcome. Its trading range has spanned from 7.5% to 50.0%. Over the last day, the price moved -2.0 pts. Total volume stands at $93.9K. Resolution hinges on whether Alexandre de Moraes is no longer a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any length of time before the market’s end date. An announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers a 'Yes' resolution, even if the departure is to take effect later. Official information from Moraes or the Brazilian government serves as the primary source, but a consensus of credible reporting can also settle the contract. The key formal conditions that could shift the price are any definitive absence, an official resignation or removal announcement, or credible reports of his exit. The cutoff for these events is Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
What triggers a 'Yes' resolution?
The market resolves to 'Yes' if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Supreme Court Justice for any period of time, including through resignation, removal, or any other form of departure. An official announcement of such a move, even if the effective date is later, is sufficient.
What if he takes a temporary leave?
Any period of absence from the court, no matter how brief, qualifies as ceasing to be a Justice under the contract’s terms. A temporary leave would trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
What sources are used to determine the outcome?
The primary resolution source is official information from Alexandre de Moraes or the Brazilian government. If such information is unavailable or ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Does the market have an expiration date?
Yes, the market covers events up to a specified end date. Only departures occurring or announced before that deadline count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice