Algeria 2026 Parliamentary Election Winner Odds

The probability for the FLN has moved. It now sits at 100.0%. The line has held at elevated levels throughout. This market resolves to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the People's National Assembly of Algeria. If the election does not occur or results remain ambiguous as reported by the Algerian government by March 31, 2027, the market settles on "Other". In a tie for seats, the winner is the party with more valid votes; a further tie breaks in favor of the party whose abbreviation appears first alphabetically. Only named parties count—independent candidates and parliamentary groups are ignored. If a listed party contests as part of a coalition, the market representing that party counts all seats won by the coalition collectively, with specific rules when multiple listed parties form a combined ticket. The market reacts to developments around the scheduled election on July 2, 2026. Any news that casts doubt on the election occurring or delays results significantly could shift the probability, given the March 31, 2027 long-stop. The ultimate arbiter is the seat count as reported by the Algerian government and verified by a consensus of credible reporting.