Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 50.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Andrew Tate Extradition Odds: Sep 30 Deadline
Markets price the chance Andrew Tate is extradited to the UK before the deadline at 50.5%, making the outcome close to a coin flip.
50.5%0.0 pts 24h
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Jun 30?
Updated · Volume $86.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Jun 30? | 50.5% | 0.0 |
| Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Dec 31? | 9.0% | -0.5 |
| Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? | 0.7% | -0.8 |
The “Yes” outcome is close to a coin flip, while the “No” side covers the remaining probability. No other outcomes are traded.
Context
Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 46.5% to 59.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 58.5% to 46.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 58.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 56.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 49.5% to 60.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 49.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 60.0% — a 20.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 34.5% to 66.5% — a 32.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Andrew and Tristan Tate denied US bail as brothers fight extradition to UK — The Guardian
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 12.5% to 48.0% — a 35.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Andrew Tate is denied bail and will remain in jail during his extradition fight — NPR News
The headline probability currently sits at 50.5%, consistent with a market that views the event as close to a coin flip. Over the tracking period, it has traded between 18.5% and 68.0%. Resolution rides on physical custody rather than paperwork. The market resolves to “Yes” if Andrew Tate is extradited to the United Kingdom — meaning he is physically transferred to U.K. government custody under an extradition process or an equivalent custody transfer — by September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. An arrest after he enters U.K. territory also qualifies. Announcements that extradition has been requested, approved, or ordered do not count on their own; the physical transfer or custody step must occur by the cutoff. What would move the number is governed by the formal conditions. The resolution deadline of Oct 1, 2026 sets the clock: any delay in extradition proceedings, or a breakdown in them, pushes the probability lower, while concrete signs of an imminent transfer or arrest raise it. The resolution source relies on official information from Andrew Tate, the U.S. and U.K. governments, and relevant courts, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. No other scheduled events are specified in the market rules, so the price reacts to news flow around custody developments.
FAQ
What counts as extradition for this market?
The market requires physical transfer to U.K. government custody via an extradition process or equivalent. If Tate enters U.K. territory on his own and is then arrested or taken into custody before the deadline, that also qualifies.
Does a UK extradition request alone trigger a “Yes”?
No. An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, or ordered is not enough. Tate must be physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.K. government custody by the deadline.
What if Tate enters the UK voluntarily?
If he enters U.K. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into custody by U.K. authorities before the market’s end date, that counts as extradition for resolution purposes.
What sources are used to resolve the market?
Official information from Andrew Tate, the governments of the United States and United Kingdom, and relevant courts is the primary source. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official information is unavailable.
When does the market resolve?
The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, and will resolve based on whether the conditions were met by that cutoff.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice