Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 13.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Andrew Tate Released from Custody: Live Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Andrew Tate walking free from custody by Jan 1, 2027 at 11.5%, a unlikely. While the consensus leans against a release, the probability is not negligible.
11.5%-9.5 pts 24h
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $295.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? | 11.5% | -9.5 |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Yes' outcome drives the bulk of trading interest; all other scenarios are considered long shots.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 15.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Andrew Tate indicted in Romania for trafficking minors, money laundering — Al Jazeera
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 16.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 27.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 14.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Tate brothers urge release on bail in Miami as they fight extradition to UK — The Guardian
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 20.5% to 33.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Andrew Tate is seeking bail in his extradition fight. Here's why that's unlikely — NPR News
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 8.5% to 36.9% — a 28.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Andrew Tate is seeking bail in his extradition fight. Here's why that's unlikely — NPR News
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 22.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Andrew Tate rented supercars to appear ‘uberwealthy’, says his lawyer — The Guardian
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 16.4% — a 12.4-point move over the past day.
The probability has traded in a range from 8.5% to 28.0% over the tracked period, with the current 11.5% marking a relatively modest level. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, including house arrest, parole, bond, or any condition that results in him leaving state custody. Temporary outings while still under correctional authority, such as court appearances or hospital visits, do not count. Transfers between facilities or to another jurisdiction also do not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from government authorities or corrections departments, with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback. Any official announcement or credible report of a change in his custody status would be the most direct catalyst. As the Jan 1, 2027 deadline approaches, the market will increasingly price the binary outcome. The resolution source's clarity will be key: ambiguity over whether a particular event constitutes a release could cause swings.
FAQ
What counts as a release under this market's terms?
Any situation where Andrew Tate leaves government custody, including house arrest, parole, or bond. Temporary outings like court appearances do not count, nor do transfers between detention facilities.
How is the resolution determined?
The primary source is official information from government authorities or corrections departments. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Does extradition count as a release?
No, transferring him to another jurisdiction's custody does not qualify as a release.
What is the deadline for this market?
The market resolves based on whether the release occurs by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice