Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 4.4% to 10.3% — a 5.9-point move over the past day.
Canada Election Call: Live Odds
The market prices the likelihood that Canada triggers a federal election call by the resolution deadline at 54.8%, making it close to a coin flip.
54.8%+50.2 pts 24h
Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $98.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026? | 54.8% | +50.2 |
| Another Canada election called by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Yes outcome is close to a coin flip, while other scenarios are collectively long shots.
Context
Sep 17, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.9% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 6.0% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 4.2% to 7.6% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 6.0% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 6.3% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 6.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has fluctuated from 3.9% to 56.7% over recent months. To settle, the market checks whether an official election date—any date before October 2029—is formally declared by Jan 1, 2027. The election itself need not happen by then; the announcement alone triggers a Yes. The primary resolution sources are official Canadian government channels, backed by a consensus of credible media reporting. What might move the number? The resolution deadline acts as a hard cutoff. Any political or legislative moves that make a snap election call more or less likely ahead of that date could shift the probability. Crown advice, parliamentary dynamics, and public polling are among the forces that might alter market sentiment.
FAQ
What must happen for the market to resolve to Yes?
An official announcement scheduling a federal election before October 2029 must be made by the market's resolution deadline.
Does the election need to occur before the deadline?
No. Only the formal declaration matters; actual voting can be scheduled for a later date.
Who reports the official outcome?
The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Canada, supported by a consensus of credible reporting.
When does the market expire without an announcement?
If no election date is declared by the resolution deadline, the market resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice