Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 13.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Another GTA VI Trailer: Odds & Probability
As of 5 min ago, traders give a 13.5% chance that Rockstar Games will release another official trailer for Grand Theft Auto VI by August 31, making this the unlikely outcome.
13.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?
Updated · Volume $695.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30? | 13.5% | -2.0 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? | 1.4% | -0.5 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome is more likely than not; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 55.0% to 29.5% — a 25.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What we know after the big Grand Theft Auto 6 preview — BBC News
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 48.0% to 59.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 38.5% to 56.5% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 50.0% to 38.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 29.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 38.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 37.0% to 42.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 37.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
The price has moved between 12.0% and 73.0% over the contract's life. It now stands at 13.5%. Resolution hinges on whether Rockstar Games publishes an official trailer before the expiry. Only a video clearly labelled as a trailer counts—teasers, gameplay clips, or other promotional material do not trigger a Yes. If Rockstar releases such a trailer on its website, YouTube channel, Twitter account, or any other official social platform, the market settles immediately at Yes. Otherwise, it settles at No when the clock runs out. The formal cutoff is Sep 1, 2026. Any official trailer drop before that deadline would resolve the market instantly. Conversely, official statements ruling out further trailers until after that date, or a prolonged silence, would diminish the odds. No other events matter for settlement.
FAQ
What counts as an official trailer?
Only a video explicitly labelled and marketed as a trailer by Rockstar Games. Teasers, gameplay snippets, or other promotional materials do not qualify.
When does this market resolve?
It resolves immediately if an official trailer is released before the expiry date. If none is released by then, it resolves to No at the deadline.
Who decides the resolution?
The market resolves based on official Rockstar communications on their website, YouTube, Twitter, or other verified social media platforms.
Does a trailer released by a third-party count?
No, only releases by Rockstar Games or its official accounts qualify.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice