Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026 at 85.7%.
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
Updated · Volume $328.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | 85.7% | +0.8 |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | 13.9% | -0.5 |
| Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will something else occur? | 0.0% | — |
| Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.6% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $328.7K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026, is priced at 85.7%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice