Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 82.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Anthropic vs OpenAI: Higher Valuation on December 31?
Prediction markets give Anthropic a 90.5% chance of having a higher valuation than OpenAI on December 31, 2026, based on Nasdaq Private Market data.
90.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $62.5K
The clear expectation is that Anthropic will have the higher valuation, while all other outcomes remain remote.
Context
The probability currently stands at 90.5%. It has traded between 88.5% and 94.5% over the period. This market resolves according to which company has the higher valuation on December 31, 2026, using the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market that day. NPM Prices are published for trading days only; if data is missing, the market may remain open until January 4, 2027. Should a company complete an IPO or direct listing before the date, the resolution shifts to its public market capitalisation at the close on December 31. Mergers and acquisitions are handled based on whether the entity remains the parent company. If the valuations are exactly equal, the market resolves 50-50. New NPM data, the approach of Jan 1, 2027, and any corporate actions—such as an IPO or acquisition—would all be reflected in the probability. Delays in data publication or changes to a company's listing status are the formal triggers that could shift the number.
FAQ
How is the valuation determined?
It uses the final NPM Price from Nasdaq Private Market for December 31, 2026. If a company has gone public by then, its market capitalisation is used instead.
What happens if the valuations are equal?
The market resolves to 50-50, paying out equal amounts to both sides.
What if NPM data isn't available by the deadline?
The market can remain open until January 4, 2027, for late data. If none appears, the latest available valuation is used.
How do corporate actions affect resolution?
An IPO or direct listing before the date shifts the measure to public market cap. An acquisition uses the valuation just before the deal completes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice