Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 93.0% to 96.2% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Fed raises rates by 25 basis points in first hike since July 2023 — CoinDesk
How Many Fed Rate Cuts in 2026? Market Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 at 96.9%.
96.9%0.0 pts 24h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Updated · Volume $54.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 96.9% | 0.0 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.5% | +0.1 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | 0.4% | -0.3 |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.4% | +0.2 |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.6% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 13 tracked outcomes and $54.4M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026, is priced at 96.9%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice