How Many Fed Rate Cuts in 2026? Market Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 at 93.0%.
93.0%+0.3 pts 24h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Updated · Volume $51.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 93.0% | +0.3 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | 5.1% | -0.1 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 1.7% | +0.1 |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.4% | -0.0 |
| Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.4% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 13 tracked outcomes and $51.6M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026, is priced at 93.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice