Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 58.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Will the Fed Hold Rates in October 2026? Market Probability
Prediction markets price Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at 63.5%.
63.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $2.6M
Across platforms
0.5 pt spreadWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket63.5%
- Kalshi63.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 63.5% | +1.0 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 35.5% | -1.0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 2.5% | +0.7 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.9% | +0.2 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 62.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 58.0% to 66.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $2.6M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting, is priced at 63.5%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice