Fed Decision in October?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at 58.5%.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $229.6K
Across platforms
7.5 pt spreadWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket58.5%
- Kalshi51.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 58.5% | -10.5 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 25.0% | +6.5 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 9.5% | -2.0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 1.8% | +0.1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 1.3% | +0.7 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 96.1% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $229.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting, is priced at 58.5%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice