Oct 17, 2026
Probability rose from 70.5% to 86.5% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Will the Fed Hold Rates in October 2026? Market Probability
Prediction markets price Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at 86.5%.
86.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $44.8M
Across platforms
0.5 pt spreadWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket86.5%
- Kalshi86.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 86.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 13.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Oct 16, 2026
Probability rose from 75.5% to 83.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Oct 15, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 71.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 14, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 51.5% — a 34.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 14, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Oct 6, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 82.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 5, 2026
Probability fell from 82.5% to 78.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 3, 2026
Probability rose from 74.5% to 82.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 2, 2026
Probability rose from 63.5% to 74.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 1, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 63.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $44.8M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting, is priced at 86.5%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice