Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 35.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, Oman discuss temporary shipping lane through Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
Strait of Hormuz traffic: Will it normalize by Dec 31?
Prediction markets currently price a 28.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz transit calls rebound to normal levels before 2027, a a substantial minority view proposition.
28.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $10.0M
With the probability hovering near 50-50, the market views both a return to normal traffic and failure to do so as roughly equally likely, reflecting a truly finely balanced outlook.
Context
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 34.5% to 42.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, Oman discuss temporary shipping lane through Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 42.5% to 36.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 44.5% to 38.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Erdogan calls for Strait of Hormuz reopening amid oil disruption — Al Jazeera
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 57.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 58.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Hormuz deal ‘close’: What’s the latest on each side’s positions? — Al Jazeera
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 61.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Rubio: Progress made to reopen Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 46.5% to 57.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has meandered around the halfway mark swinging from 27.5% to 63.5% with a -2.0 pts drift in the past day, now at 28.5%. The market resolves Yes the instant IMF Portwatch records a 7-day moving average of daily transit calls hitting or exceeding 60, at any date from market creation through December 31, 2026. If no such reading appears, it settles No after the final data arrives, with a 14-day grace period should the last day’s figures lag. Revisions published within the window are incorporated; later changes do not retroactively alter a resolved outcome. In cases of clear data errors, the market may pause for up to three calendar days to allow for corrections. Because the trigger can be tripped at any moment, each IMF Portwatch update has the potential to jolt the price. The ultimate deadline is Dec 31, 2026; any date beyond that without a qualifying signal would confirm a No resolution. The market also tracks volume of $10.0M as a gauge of conviction.
FAQ
What qualifies as a return to normal traffic?
The market defines it as a 7-day moving average of transit calls, as published by IMF Portwatch, reaching at least 60. This figure includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels.
Which ships does IMF Portwatch count?
It tallies container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Other ship types are excluded.
What if the data source is temporarily unavailable?
If no data is published for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, the market resolves based on whatever data is available up to that point.
Can a one-day spike cause the market to resolve Yes?
No. The metric is a seven-day moving average, so a sustained increase is needed, not a single day’s jump.
Do later data revisions change a resolution once it’s made?
Only revisions published before December 31, 2026 are considered. Once the deadline passes or a Yes resolution is triggered, subsequent corrections do not alter the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice