Will Strait of Hormuz traffic normalize by 2026? Market odds
Markets give a 55.5% chance that the Strait of Hormuz sees its 7-day moving average of daily ship arrivals return to 60 by end-2026, marking normal traffic.
Updated · Volume $5.1M
Markets price a 55.5% likelihood that traffic normalizes, leaving a 44.5% chance that the seven-day moving average stays below 60 through end-2026.
Context
The market pegs a return to normal to a specific threshold: a seven-day moving average of daily transit calls published by IMF Portwatch for the Strait of Hormuz hitting 60 or above at any point between the market’s creation and 31 December 2026. The counts include container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers—but only those reported by IMF Portwatch. At 55.5%, the probability suggests traders see slightly better-than-even odds that traffic reaches the benchmark before the deadline. The market has drawn $5,097,678.55 in volume, a level that often points to genuine conviction rather than sparse, erratic trading. Yet a 44.5% implied chance of staying below 60 keeps the outcome far from assured. Resolution is mechanical and tied strictly to the IMF Portwatch data. If the seven-day moving average touches 60 on any day through end-2026, the market resolves to Yes immediately. If no such value emerges by then, it settles No. The specific data source is the transit calls chart and downloadable files at the IMF Portwatch page for the strait. The market will also resolve automatically once data for the final date (31 December 2026) is published and no qualifying value has appeared, or if no data arrives within 14 calendar days after that date, using whatever data is available up to that point. Data revisions made within the timeframe are taken into account, even if they retroactively change a previously qualifying figure. But corrections released after data for 31 December 2026 are disregarded, except for a narrow three-calendar-day window allowed for obvious clerical errors that affect data integrity. This reliance on a single, public dataset eliminates ambiguity but also means that any shortfall in actual vessel movements or reporting lags directly influences the final result.
FAQ
What counts as normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz?
The market sets normal at a seven-day moving average of at least 60 daily transit calls, as recorded by IMF Portwatch. Ships must appear in Portwatch to be counted.
How is the market resolved?
It resolves to Yes as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a seven-day moving average of 60 or above for the Strait of Hormuz on any day between market creation and 31 December 2026. If no such value appears by the deadline, it resolves to No.
What types of ships are included?
The data covers container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo vessels, and tankers. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are excluded.
What is IMF Portwatch?
It is the data source used to determine the outcome of this market, providing daily transit call counts for the Strait of Hormuz. The market relies solely on its published figures at the specified web address.
What happens if the data is corrected later?
Revisions published before data is released for 31 December 2026 will be taken into account, even if they change a previously qualifying figure. Corrections after that date are ignored, except during a brief three-day window allowed for obvious clerical errors.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice