Sep 27, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Can Iran shift trade north to Caspian Sea as war impairs Strait of Hormuz? — Al Jazeera
Strait of Hormuz traffic: Will it normalize by Dec 31?
Prediction markets currently price a 11.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz transit calls rebound to normal levels before 2027, a unlikely proposition.
11.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $15.0M
With the probability hovering near 50-50, the market views both a return to normal traffic and failure to do so as roughly equally likely, reflecting a truly finely balanced outlook.
Context
Sep 26, 2026
Probability fell from 30.5% to 20.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What’s in Iran’s seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? — Al Jazeera
Sep 25, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran: Strait of Hormuz won’t be used to ‘impose insecurity on us’ — Al Jazeera
Sep 23, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 23.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 22, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Can Gulf states and Iran negotiate the Strait of Hormuz without the U.S.? — NPR News
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 18.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Qatar says reopening Strait of Hormuz ‘unconditionally’ is a priority — Al Jazeera
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 35.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, Oman discuss temporary shipping lane through Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
The probability has meandered around the halfway mark swinging from 11.5% to 29.5% with a 0.0 pts drift in the past day, now at 11.5%. The market resolves Yes the instant IMF Portwatch records a 7-day moving average of daily transit calls hitting or exceeding 60, at any date from market creation through December 31, 2026. If no such reading appears, it settles No after the final data arrives, with a 14-day grace period should the last day’s figures lag. Revisions published within the window are incorporated; later changes do not retroactively alter a resolved outcome. In cases of clear data errors, the market may pause for up to three calendar days to allow for corrections. Because the trigger can be tripped at any moment, each IMF Portwatch update has the potential to jolt the price. The ultimate deadline is Jan 1, 2027; any date beyond that without a qualifying signal would confirm a No resolution. The market also tracks volume of $15.0M as a gauge of conviction.
FAQ
What qualifies as a return to normal traffic?
The market defines it as a 7-day moving average of transit calls, as published by IMF Portwatch, reaching at least 60. This figure includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels.
Which ships does IMF Portwatch count?
It tallies container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Other ship types are excluded.
What if the data source is temporarily unavailable?
If no data is published for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, the market resolves based on whatever data is available up to that point.
Can a one-day spike cause the market to resolve Yes?
No. The metric is a seven-day moving average, so a sustained increase is needed, not a single day’s jump.
Do later data revisions change a resolution once it’s made?
Only revisions published before December 31, 2026 are considered. Once the deadline passes or a Yes resolution is triggered, subsequent corrections do not alter the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice