Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 3.6% to 8.2% — a 4.6-point move over the past day.
Chance an STF Justice Is Impeached Before 2027
Markets price the chance that any STF justice is impeached and permanently removed before 2027 at 4.4%—a long shot—given that a permanent removal requires a trial for a crime of responsibility.
4.4%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $91.8K
The market heavily tilts toward no removal occurring, with the possibility of a justice being impeached and permanently removed viewed as a long shot.
Context
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 6.7% to 3.4% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 3.6% to 7.2% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Brazil’s Supreme Court shuts down early as political chaos mounts — Al Jazeera
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 4.8% to 22.3% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Brazil’s Supreme Court shuts down early as political chaos mounts — Al Jazeera
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 18.1% to 6.2% — a 11.9-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 5.9% to 16.7% — a 10.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 3.5% to 10.4% — a 6.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 3.6% to 13.8% — a 10.2-point move over the past day.
The probability has traded in a narrow range from 3.3% to 24.9%, now at 4.4%. Over the past day, it edged 0.0 pts,
The market resolves to “Yes” if any STF justice is permanently removed as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” Justices leaving due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or other reasons count for nothing. Procedural steps such as impeachment filings, suspensions, or trials that do not lead to permanent removal also do not trigger a “Yes.” The primary resolution source is official Brazilian government information; a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. The market’s number could shift in response to concrete advances—or setbacks—in a formal impeachment or criminal accountability process against a justice. Since the outcome hinges on a permanent removal before the deadline Jan 1, 2027, any official action that makes such a removal more or less likely would be expected to move the price. The resolution will rely on official government announcements.
FAQ
What must happen for the market to resolve to Yes?
A justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court must be permanently removed from the court following an impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility. Temporary suspensions or ongoing proceedings are not enough.
Does a voluntary resignation count?
No. Only removals resulting directly from an impeachment or crime-of-responsibility trial count. Term limits, resignations, and deaths are excluded.
What if a justice is suspended but later cleared?
The market requires permanent removal. A suspension alone, even if it leads to a trial, does not resolve the market to Yes unless it ultimately results in the justice being permanently removed.
How is the outcome verified?
The primary source is official information from the Brazilian government. If that is ambiguous, a consensus of credible news reporting may be used to determine whether a removal met the criteria.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice