Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 84.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Arizona Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic victory in the 2026 Arizona governor race at 88.5%. The contract settles once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
88.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $73.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 88.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 11.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Option B win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option I win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option J win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option C win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option E win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option D win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option A win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option F win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option G win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option H win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democrats are the favored outcome, while Republicans hold a minority position; the remaining candidates are all long shots.
Context
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 83.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
At 88.5%, the contract,. The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. If the networks do not agree, settlement falls back to the official certification. A candidate is considered to represent a party if nominated by that party; independents are not counted under Democratic or Republican outcomes regardless of any party ties. The number will shift as the election date Nov 3, 2026 nears and new information about the candidates emerges. Resolution hinges on calls from the three designated news organizations and, ultimately, the certified result. Polls, primary outcomes, and campaign news can all alter the market’s assessment.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all declared the same winner of the 2026 Arizona governor race. If they do not agree, the market settles based on the state’s official certification.
What qualifies a candidate as a Democrat or Republican?
A candidate is treated as a Democrat or Republican if they are that party’s official nominee. Independents are not included in those categories even if they have a party affiliation.
When will the market be settled?
Settlement occurs once the three news sources call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification if they disagree. The election is in 2026, but an exact settlement date is not fixed.
Are third-party or independent candidates included?
Only the Democratic and Republican nominees are explicitly listed now, but other candidates may be added. The remaining outcomes cover any other party or independent winner.
What if the three news sources don't agree?
If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves according to the official certification of the election result.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice