Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 97.4% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
AZ-03 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets rate the Democratic Party as near-certain to carry Arizona's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterms, pricing their chances at 98.2%.
98.2%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat?
Updated · Volume $52.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat? | 98.2% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the AZ-03 House seat? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the AZ-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the AZ-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the AZ-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the AZ-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the AZ-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the AZ-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is near-certain to hold the seat, while any other result remains a distant long shot.
Context
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 97.3% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
The probability currently stands at 98.2%. Over the last day, it moved 0.0 pts. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins Arizona's 3rd district, as determined by their ballot listing or most recent caucus intent. When the election is called, a consensus of credible reporting settles the contract; in cases of ambiguity, the official results from the Federal Election Commission prevail. Resolution hinges on the election scheduled for Nov 3, 2026. Until then, large moves are unlikely unless a development meaningfully alters the race. The final settlement mechanism—a press consensus or, if necessary, the FEC—provides the definitive trigger.
FAQ
How is the winner determined?
The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat.
What counts as a candidate's party?
The party under which they appear on the ballot, or if none, the party they most recently chose to caucus with.
When does the market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm elections, once the result is conclusively called by credible news organizations or the Federal Election Commission.
Could an independent candidate win?
Yes, but they would be assigned to a party based on caucus intent if not listed on the ballot.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice